Addressing supporters in El Paso, Texas on Tuesday night, Hillary Clinton employed a colorful local expression: “all hat and no cattle.”
The phrase was intended to diminish the swagger of U.S. President George W. Bush, who claims Texas as his home state.
Apparently Clinton had decided Tuesday was not a promising night to tilt against Barack Obama, her opponent in the campaign to win the Democratic nomination for president.
Obama swept three mid-Atlantic primaries (Virginia, Maryland and Washington, D.C.) by large margins on Tuesday and has won eight primaries and caucuses in a row since Super Tuesday.
Regardless of who has the most cattle, as of Tuesday night Obama – for the first time since he won the Iowa Caucus to kick off the election season – has the most delegates.
“As of today, Sen. Obama leads in total delegates, raw votes, states won and has a substantial advantage in campaign funds,” U.S. Rep. Wm. Lacy Clay told the American yesterday.
Estimates vary, because of the complexity of the process of determining delegates, but CNN places Obama ahead with 1,253 delegates to Clinton’s 1,211.
Obama spoke to his supporters in Madison, Wisconsin, not long after Clinton spoke in El Paso, but long enough to have seen her speech and to use it subtly against her.
“George Bush will not be on the ballot in November,” Obama said.
It is all but decided that John McCain will be on the Nov. 4 ballot as the Republican nominee. In a bold, almost brash move, Obama moved quickly past Clinton in his comments Tuesday night and spent most of his speech campaigning against McCain.
As usual, Obama used McCain’s support for the War in Iraq against him. As usual, a promise to end the war drew the most sustained applause from his core supporters.
Obama’s brusque move past Clinton to focus on McCain reflected his campaign’s confidence that Obama’s 8-0 surge has moved him decisively closer to the nomination.
Major primaries in key states, such as Texas and Ohio, still lie ahead, and beyond that the struggle for super-delegates. But the speed with which Obama turned from Clinton to McCain on the stump Tuesday night is a genuine expression of campaign momentum.
“We have now won east and west, north and south, and across the heartland of this country we love,” Obama said on Tuesday.
The next elections are Feb. 19 in Hawaii, where Obama grew up, and in Wisconsin, where he has the support of Governor Jim Doyle, who joined Obama in Madison on Tuesday.
“I think Senator Obama will do well in Wisconsin and Hawaii next week and will be very hard to stop,” Clay said.
Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island hold primaries on March 4.
Before Tuesday, Clinton would have been expected to do well in Texas, with its large Latino population, and in Ohio, with its large number of white blue-collar voters. But on Tuesday Obama held the edge with Latino voters, and his numbers are climbing among lower-income whites and every other demographic.
“On Tuesday, Senator Obama won with senior citizens and working families that make less than $50,000 a year,” Clay said. “The traditional Democratic base is joining us.”
On Tuesday, the only demographic Clinton won was white women. One of Obama’s most prominent white women supporters thinks she knows why.
U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill pointed out to the American yesterday that Obama held early leads among young voters, black voters and highly educated voters. With other demographics, it has been a question of time and familiarity.
“The people who hadn’t supported him were the people whose lives are so stretched and stressed that they didn’t have time to get acquainted with him,” McCaskill said.
“To know him is to love him.”
Super-delegation
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe – who puts his candidate’s lead higher than CNN does, at 136 delegates – said in a conference call yesterday that “it’s next to impossible for Senator Clinton to close that pledged-delegate count.”
A Democrat will need 2,025 of 4,049 at the party’s convention in August. Of those 4,049 delegates, 3,253 are pledged delegates, with their allegiance mostly determined by the popular vote in a state’s primary or caucus.
In the Missouri Primary on Feb. 5, Obama beat Clinton by 10,479 votes, earning 13 pledged congressional district delegates to Clinton’s 12.
The other 796 nation-wide delegates are super-delegates, who are not bound by election results. Most estimates place Clinton ahead in super-delegates, since they tend to be entrenched party insiders, which has been viewed as a base for Clinton.
There are 16 super-delegates among Missouri Democrats. The most powerful of those, McCaskill, has endorsed Obama, as have Clay and U.S. Rep. Russ Carnahan.
Former U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt has endorsed Clinton.
Two super-delegates who live in the St. Louis area, Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan and State Party Chair John Temporiti, intend to remain neutral, as does State Party Vice Chair Yolanda Wheat of Kansas City.
Another super-delegate from St. Louis County, state Rep. Maria Chappelle-Nadal of University City, told the American she “will follow the rules and bylaws of the DNC passed in February of 2007 by the DNC membership and Chairman Howard Dean concerning DNC at-large members and remain uncommitted until the convention.”
Among out-state Democrats, according to the Post-Dispatch, only DNC member Mark Bryant has endorsed Obama. U.S. Rep Emanuel Cleaver and DNC members Sandra Querry and Doug Brooks have endorsed Clinton.
U.S. Rep. Ike Skelton and DNC member Leila Medley remain undecided, according to the Post.
A press release from the Missouri Democratic Party stated, “These super-delegates will cast their vote at the August Democratic National Convention in Denver for their favorite candidate, regardless of Missouri’s primary results.”
Missouri’s only Democratic U.S. senator strongly disagreed.
“It’s a high likelihood that at the end of the primaries and caucuses, Obama will take the most pledged delegates to the convention,” McCaskill said.
“The question then becomes: Should we ever let party insiders overturn the votes of millions and millions of people who have already participated?”
McCaskill answered her own question: “Our party of all parties should represent the will of the people.”
The Missouri Democratic Party may be reached at www.missouridems.org or (573) 636-5241.