There has been a lot of chatter surrounding the election to choose a successor to term-limited 4th District State Senator Pat Dougherty. The most prominent names that have surfaced are State Rep. Rachel Storch, State Rep. Fred Kratky, State Rep. Amber Holly Boykins, State Rep. Yaphet El-Amin and Jeff Smith, who narrowly lost to Russ Carnahan last August in the Democratic Primary election for 3rd District U.S. Congressman.
The state’s 4th District spreads from the far northwestern section of the city’s 27th Ward to the far southwestern edge of the city’s 16th Ward. The district’s racial demographic is roughly 50/50 black/white. In the August 2000 primary between Dougherty and former state representative and now 4th Ward Alderman OL Shelton, Dougherty won by garnering more than 30 percent of the black vote. Dougherty was able to take advantage of a feud between Shelton and certain black elected officials and thus won the endorsement of a number of black ward organizations.
If all five presumed candidates file, the August 2006 Democratic Primary election could be a barnburner. Before the names of Storch and Smith surfaced, the EYE had handicapped Kratky as the likely winner in a three-person race between Kratky, who is white (and represents the predominately white and heavy-voting 16th Ward as its Democratic committeeman), and Boykins and El-Amin, who are both black.
But a five-person race could produce all kinds of results. One scenario could have the blacks splitting the black vote and the three whites dividing the white vote. This would normally mean defeat for both black candidates, but not necessarily in this case. While one expects Kratky’s strength to come from his conservative and predominately white district, and Storch and Smith would seem to be strongest in the city’s integrated Central Corridor, a black candidate who made hay in the Central Corridor could win. And keep in mind that progressive blacks who voted for Smith in his bid for Congress will not automatically vote against him for a black candidate in the state Senate race. The migration of blacks into South St. Louis makes it even more difficult to handicap this election.
And then there is the aborition issue. Dougherty is pro-life, and so is Kratky. The other three candidates are pro-choice. This could split the vote of white liberal women in the district in a number of interesting ways. The bottom line here is that demographics in the district make it possible for any of these five candidates to win if they all file.
