When President Donald Trump took office for a second time last year, experts warned that Black Americans could face ECONOMIC HARDSHIP, pointing to Project 2025 proposals calling for deep government spending cuts and Trump’s long-standing opposition to initiatives aimed at increasing Black employment.
Now, on the first anniversary of Trump’s second term, a Washington think tank reports that the president’s policies have pushed Black communities into what it describes as an economic downturn.
A new report from the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies finds that Black unemployment has reached recession-level territory, with joblessness among young Black people more than four times the national average. The report says the Black federal workforce has been sharply reduced, the social safety net weakened further, and racial inequality likely to worsen.
‘Chaos’ as the new reality
“One of Dr. King’s last books was ‘Where Do We Go From Here: Chaos or Community,’” according to the report. Titled “State of the Dream 2026: From Regression to Signs of a Black Recession,” it adds that nearly 60 years after his assassination, “chaos feels like the word that captures today’s reality.”
Dedrick Asante-Muhammad, president of the Joint Center, said he was surprised by how quickly Trump’s second term affected Black Americans.
“I did not expect such an immediate negative impact to African Americans in one year,” Asante-Muhammad said.
He pointed to what he described as “radical policy shifts” during Trump’s second term — including the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, an Elon Musk-led initiative that sharply reduced the federal workforce — as a major factor in widening economic gaps between Black households and their white counterparts.
“During the first year of Trump’s first term, Black unemployment declined by almost a percentage point,” Asante-Muhammad said. “In the first year of Trump’s second term, Black unemployment increased over a percentage point to 7.5%.”
Disturbing economic data
Prepared with several nonprofit partners, the report links the White House’s domestic policy agenda to rising economic strain for Black workers and families.
When Trump took office last January, the Black unemployment rate stood at about 6%, compared with the national rate of 4%, according to the report. By December 2025, Black unemployment had climbed to 7.5%.
The figures for Black youths were even more severe, reaching about 18% by the end of last year — more than triple the national average.
“If Black people had the same prime-age employment rate in 2025 that they had in 2024, then there would have been about 260,000 more prime-age Black people working,” the report states. “Of this number, about 200,000 would have been prime-age Black women.”
The DOGE initiative likely contributed significantly to those losses, the report said.
“The elimination of 271,000 federal jobs has likely had a severe impact on Black workers, who are disproportionately represented in the federal workforce, as reflected in the sharp rise in Black unemployment in 2025,” the report said.
Organize and strategize
The report also warns that tax provisions in Trump’s so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act will further weaken the social safety net by shrinking federal revenue and shifting wealth toward higher-income households.
It adds that Trump’s regulatory agenda has left Black communities more vulnerable to predatory lending, that his job policies may deepen workplace inequality, and that his housing policies fail to narrow the racial homeownership gap.
While the outlook is grim, the report stresses that “regression is not destiny.”
“But neither is progress automatic,” it states, adding that meaningful change “requires more than optimism.”
Overcoming the setbacks will take “the organized power, evidence-based strategy, and moral clarity that have driven every successful movement for racial justice in American history,” the report said.
“The dream Dr. King articulated remains both measurable and achievable. Whether we reach it depends on the choices we make in response to what this report reveals.”
This article originally appeared here.