Ever since the autumn announcement that the University of Missouri athletics would join the SEC, pigskin prognosticators have been predicting the demise of Mizzou football. Of course the big, bad boys of the South have dominated college football of late, having had a conference affiliate crowned BCS National Champion the past six seasons. The notion that SEC football is the greatest, purest form of college football ever known to man has been so often repeated that it’s now accepted as second-nature – but is it true? If so, do the Tigers have a chance to swim with the big fish or is the team doomed to drown in deep waters of its new home?
First off, had the Tigers remained in the Big 12 Conference following the team’s mildly underwhelming 8-5 finish a season ago, they would’ve likely been considered strong contenders for the conference title. Last season, the team struggled to an 4-5 start in sophomore QB James Franklin’s first season at the helm. As Franklin grew more comfortable in the offense, the team improved tremendously and finished the season with a four-game winning streak, including an impressive 41-24 victory over North Carolina in the Independence Bowl.
Franklin finished the season with nearly 3000 yards through the air and 21 passing touchdowns versus just interceptions. He also rushed for nearly 1000 yards and 15 scores. With his top receiver, T.J. Moe, returning for his senior season and incoming five-star freshman wideout Dorial Green-Beckham expected to work his way up the depth chart to become a big contributor, Franklin is poised for a big season.
Of course, the SEC’s staunch reputation has quelled the lofty expectations the Tigers might have faced in the Big 12. In its first seven games, the team will face three top-10 preseason squads (#6 Georgia, #9 South Carolina and #2 Alabama). They will also face tough teams such as Tennessee and Florida on the road. Many fans and experts are expecting Coach Gary Pinkel’s team to lose all the aforementioned games, meaning the best case scenario would be another 8-5 season, presuming another mid-level bowl win.
However, in his book “Better Off Without ‘Em,” author Chuck Thompson challenges the ideal of SEC dominance and claims the reason for the six consecutive BCS titles has more to do with the league’s lucrative deal with ESPN than actual league dominance. He claims because the network has deals with both the SEC and the BCS, it’s in best interest of ESPN, for the SEC to play for the national championship as often as possible, hence the impressive preseason polls.
The numbers seem to support the theory considering the SEC has won 57% of the titles in the BCS era, but only won 10% of the titles in the 50 years prior. Thompson also put together a compilation of the SEC’s records versus other power leagues since the start of the BCS era (1998) and the results are surprising:
SEC vs. PAC-12 regular season: 10-12
SEC vs. Big 12 regular season: 6-10
SEC vs. ACC regular season: 42-36
SEC vs. Big 10 regular season: 7-4
SEC vs. Big East regular season: 16-15
So as the Tigers veer into the uncharted lands of the SEC, there will undoubtedly be a learning curve. In addition to the additional $750k the school is expected to pay for travel expenses, the team will be playing new opponents in new stadiums. But despite the league’s reputation for dominance, Mizzou should have a fighting chance to compete in its new conference.
Instead of worry about their supposedly indestructible foes and the passionate and intimidating fans on the road, the success of Mizzou’s season will depend on Franklin’s surgically repaired shoulder, Green-Beckham’s learning curve and Kendial Lawrence’s performance as the starting tailback in the absence of Henry Josey due to injury – and of course the defense.
For the school that’s credited with the invention of Homecoming, fans will be interested to see how many wins the Tigers can bring home in its first season in the SEC. Only time will tell, but there’s plenty of reasons to expect the Tigers to put up a good fight against the schoolyard bullies.
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