It’s that time of year when we make our “Chase for the Cup” predictions for the 2005 NASCAR season. Here is our predicted order of finish:
1. Jeff Gordon — Had “old points” been utilized, Gordon would have been the 2004 champ. But they aren’t, so he’s back again this year in the thick of the hunt. New equalization rules play into his hand.
2. Dale Earnhardt Jr. — If his team can figure out some of the smaller, mid-size tracks, he’ll again make a run for the overall title. Will new crew chief Pete Rondeau make a difference? We’ll see.
3. Jimmy Johnson — His four wins in the last 10 races nearly made up for several poor “Chase” outings. A class act with lots of horses under the hood, he missed hoisting the Cup last year by just eight points.
4. Kasey Kahne — No sophomore jinx for this kid. Look for a minimum of three wins and a strong run at the Nextel Cup in his Dodge Charger.
5. Tony Stewart — “Smoke” could come away with the whole thing if luck goes his way and he’s not involved in too many crashes. Granted, some he caused himself, but others he didn’t. Stewart is the best true “race driver” out there.
6. Jamie McMurray — New to the list this year, he’s car owner Chip Ganassi’s best shot at a top-10 contender.
7. Matt Kenseth — Always a force to be reckoned with and a true “David Pearson”-style driver. He always seems to be there when final laps are counting down, regardless of starting spot. Fewer blown engines mean more points.
8. Kurt Busch — We left him off the list last year and he won the whole thing. Did I just curse this guy by adding him this year? Time will tell.
9. Mark Martin — A sentimental favorite, I’d love to see Martin and Jack Roush sitting at the Waldorf-Astoria’s “big table” in December. He’s driving his last full season of Cup racing.
10. Ryan Newman — Prime example of the fastest car not always winning. Too many engine failures and bad-luck streaks plagued this driver, who can dominate like no one else when things are right.
Honorable Mentions: Kevin Harvick, Jeremy Mayfield, Elliot Sadler, Dale Jarrett, Greg Biffle and Jeff Burton.
Longshot Pick: Dave Blaney.
NOTE: Our top picks last year were, in order of final year-end predicted finish: Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Jimmy Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Ryan Newman, Rusty Wallace, Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick, Bobby Labonte and Jeremy Mayfield. Gordon finished third behind Jimmy Johnson. We listed eventual Cup champion Kurt Busch in the honorable mention category.
TV TIDBITS: Look for NASCAR TV ratings, which went up from a 5.3 rating in 2003 to a 5.6 in 2004, to rise again in 2005. In comparison, the NFL went from 10.3 to 10.1 for a slight loss, but was still impressive. The third closest sport to NFL and NASCAR is NCAA football, which garnered a 3.8 in ’03 and decreased to 3.4 in ’04. Baseball did a 2.7 for both years, while the NBA earned 1.3 ratings the past two seasons. The Nielsen ratings equal 1.096 million viewers for each point.