The black community in St. Louis is in a funk about the potential for a black mayor being lost by, in relative terms, a handful of votes in the March 7 election, and also seething in thinking that had there not been so many black candidates in the race an African-American woman would be the city’s next mayor.
All around the community, the drums are sounding the question: “Why couldn’t they have been smart enough to just have one black running?” However, before we jump to this plausible eyeball analysis, let us first look at the data.
There was a factor that weighed more heavily in the election than the number of blacks in the race – black turnout. The turnout in the 11 wards headed by black aldermen had a turnout rate of 24 percent. If you exclude the three wards – 6, 17, 20 – headed by white aldermen which have large numbers of black residents and focus on the turnout of the vote in the other 14 wards headed by white aldermen, then the average voter turnout in these wards was 31 percent. Whites came out more to vote for a white mayor than blacks came out to vote for a black one.
In the election, the 11 black wards turned out 17,010 voters out of a total of 70,846 registered voters in these wards. If the turnout had averaged 30 percent in these 11 wards, rather than 24 percent, that would have produced a total of 21,254 voters. The difference between what the turnout in these 11 wards would have been had there been a 30 percent turnout and the actual election turnout is 4,244 voters.
Of the votes cast in these 11 black wards, Tishaura Jones received 33 percent of the votes. If she had received this same percentage with a 30 percent turnout in these wards, then she would have received 1,400 additional votes. Lyda Krewson received 10 percent of the vote in these 11 wards. If there had been a 30 percent turnout in these wards, she would have received 424 additional votes. If these 424 votes are added to the 17,110 votes Krewson received in the election, then her total votes would have been 17,534. But if 1,400 votes were added to the 16,222 Jones received in the election, then her vote total would have been 17,622 – less than 100 votes more than Krewson, but more than Krewson.
So, if the black turnout had increased six percentage points – from 24 percent to 30 percent – then Tishaura Jones would be the next mayor, notwithstanding the other African-American candidates in the race.
What this suggests is that more effort and energy should be devoted to getting blacks to exercise their right to vote than trying to talk capable black elected officials out of seeking higher office in order to have a sole black candidate.
Eric E. Vickers is an attorney, activist and former chief of staff for state Senator Jamilah Nasheed.
