In these last two elections, St. Louis city has seen an upsurge in power and influence of African-American voters. Strong turnout has not only helped re-elect U.S. Rep. Wm. Lacy Clay, but it has also turned back well-funded white challengers (in traditionally African-American state House and Senate districts) and given President Obama and Missouri Democrats strong margins in the city.
Much of this has been attributed to the “North Side rising” and, while great turnout in northern wards is undoubtedly the primary engine, decades of population shifts have created a large African-American base in South St. Louis.
On the eastern half of South City, there are many areas where African-American residents make up large percentages or (in a smaller number of neighborhoods) outright majorities. In both August and November, these oft-neglected voters showed up in numbers stronger than seen in recent elections in middle income neighborhoods (Shaw, Gate District) and lower-income, renter-heavy neighborhoods (Gravois Park, Benton Park West).
For years, African-American turnout rates in many of these neighborhoods have been dwarfed by their counterparts to the north. Big Democratic GOTV operations have traditionally skipped much of this part of town, because they’ve believed that organizing in these neighborhoods is a waste of time and money.
On the other hand, among St. Louis’ political circles, this vote is often seen as a “sleeping dragon,” one that when awoken could shake the balance of power in city politics. In the chronically low-turnout municipal primary elections that decide on our city’s leaders, every vote has an outsized influence, and disorganization among African-American voters in South St. Louis has limited black political power. This is often exacerbated by white-dominated Democratic ward organizations that don’t really try to get African-American voters involved or actively work against this organizing, which they see as a potential future challenge to their power.
The numbers from the August primary give me reason to believe that this part of the electorate is ready to wake up. Most political observers point to the big August turnout as proof that African Americans know that political representation means power and that by turning out in large numbers the African-American community propelled black candidates into office, often after being heavily outspent by white rivals.
The question is whether St. Louis’ political class learns the lesson that these newly energized votes are valuable. Can we organize these voters? Can we turn them out in March? If the answer is yes, then that could dramatically reshape our political representation and priorities.
Right now, votes in the Central Corridor are considered the city’s highly valuable municipal swing votes. These voters tend to be white (though the neighborhoods are quite diverse), socially liberal, upper-income professionals. This leads to legislation focused on appeasing this slice of the electorate, often at the expense of other voters. Campaigns spend tons of cash in these already well off neighborhoods, while doors go unknocked in low-income, predominantly black South Side neighborhoods.
What if these doors got knocked? What if these folks were organized? Any credible campaigner will tell you that the lower the turnout, the more important it is to get your base votes to the polls, and St. Louis’ municipal elections have embarrassingly low turnouts. Many St. Louis politicians don’t realize how big the potential of this African-American base is and what the effect of activating voters in these neighborhoods could be.
Organizing is hard work, but if we want a more just and equitable St. Louis, it must be done. Who will do it? Will it be already established African-American politicians seeing the opportunity for citywide victory? Or fresh faces, bringing a new energy and a focus on bettering life for African Americans in South St. Louis?
Glenn Burleigh is a long-time St. Louis political consultant.
