The elections in Iraq have been a remarkable step forward. Even the most skeptical should be deeply moved by the courage of millions of Iraqis who made their way, despite threats and chaos, to cast their vote. Whether mobilized by their religious or ethnic leaders or not, they demonstrated the thirst that citizens have to choose their own destiny.
Now the U.S. should follow the wise advice of an old Republican senator from Vermont, George Aiken. He famously advised President Johnson to “declare victory and come home” from Vietnam. Johnson didn’t take that advice, and continued to escalate and pursue the war that ultimately destroyed his presidency.
With the elections in Iraq, George Bush now has a similar opportunity — “declare victory and come home.” Set a timetable for the withdrawal of troops, beginning, as Sen. Kennedy just recommended, with the immediate withdrawal of 12,000 or so troops to show that we’re serious about getting out.
This is vital if the Iraqi leadership is to gain legitimacy and take control of negotiating unity in the country. As courageous as the Iraqis were, this election could not avoid mirroring underlying realities. While Kurds in the north and Shiites in the south voted in large numbers, Sunni participation was very low. Most voters voted for slates without even knowing the candidates or their positions, since campaigning was nonexistent and many candidates didn’t want their names published for fear of being targeted by terrorists.
The widespread opposition to the American occupation remains. The uprising and violence will likely intensify. Sunnis — the heart of the resistance — are likely to get more, not less, desperate. The outside terrorists who want to defeat America will get more, not less, violent.
In this situation, it is vital that the emerging Iraqi leadership understand that it must compromise to make peace across the country. And it is vital that the Iraqi people understand that the new leadership is independent of the U.S. and its hated occupation.
The risk of bringing the troops home, of course, is that the civil war will intensify. But escalating violence will be equally true if the U.S. forces stay. Iraqis, we’re told, are neither trained nor ready to police their own country. That is also true, but so long as the U.S. troops are in Iraq indefinitely, Iraqis will remain happy to let the U.S. forces do the fighting. The only way to get them to be serious about taking responsibility is to make it clear that the U.S. forces are on the way out.
President Bush will trumpet the triumph in freedom in Iraq, but whether Iraq is a democracy and what kind of freedoms it allows remain to be seen. The key reality, however, is that the U.S. can’t make the decisions for the Iraqis. We can’t do the hard negotiations between minority Kurds and majority Shiites; balance the interests of the majority against the rights of the minorities. We can’t cut the deals needed to sap the base of the Sunni insurgency.
So long as we remain, the Iraqi government will remain dependent, and the insurgency will continue to grow.
This war has cost the U.S. big time. Over 1,000 of our soldiers have given their lives, and thousands more have suffered wounds, many of which will never be healed. We’re spending about $100 billion a year even as we run up record deficits, and shortchange vital investment in schools and health care. Worse, we’ve provided justification for Osama bin Laden’s claim that the U.S. is waging war on Islam, and provided a megaphone for his call for a defensive jihad against the U.S.. As the conservative International Institute for Strategic Studies has concluded, we’ve provided al-Qaida with a recruiting bonanza across the Muslim world.
If we stay, things will get much worse. The current government has announced plans to sell off Iraqi oil resources to Western companies, which will outrage Iraqi nationalists. The Turkish government has issued stern warnings to the U.S. that the Kurds are growing too independent, threatening to take over the oil lands around Kirkuk, and are fostering rebellion of Kurds in Turkey. Iraqis voted in the belief that a vote might end the occupation, not lengthen it.
So set a staged timetable for withdrawal. Make it clear that the U.S. plans no permanent bases. Begin to withdraw troops even while moving more of them out of direct policing and into training functions. Iraqis have voted. Now let’s let them start building their own country. And then, let’s vow never again to launch a pre-emptive war against a threat that does not exist. The cost is too high. The rewards too few. Even yesterday’s deeply moving election can’t mask that reality.
