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After winning the show-down with House Republicans shortly before
Christmas over extending unemployment insurance and receiving an
uptick in his job-approval ratings, President Obama is now in a
better position to win re-election, despite a sluggish economy.
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With the Iowa caucus over and New Hampshire as the next GOP
battleground, Obama is expecting to face former Massachusetts Gov.
Mitt Romney in the general election next November. Former Speaker
of House Newt Gingrich, like other candidates before him, briefly
assumed the front-runner mantle before his poor performance in
Iowa.
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The good news for Obama is that his populist themes and his
willingness to call out Republicans are winning over voters.
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A story in the Washington Post observed: “A new Washington
Post-ABC News poll finds that Americans are still broadly
disapproving of Obama’s handling of the economy and jobs, the top
issues, but that views of his overall performance have recovered
among key groups, including independents, young adults and
seniors.”
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It noted, “Obama’s job-approval rating is now its highest since
March, excluding a temporary bump after the killing of Osama bin
Laden: Forty-nine percent approve and 47 percent disapprove.”
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The poll, taken Dec. 15-18, found Republican Congressional support
has fallen to 20 percent.
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Both parties have actively courted middle-class voters. And Obama
seems to be winning that matchup as well, according to the
Washington Post-ABC News poll. When asked about protecting the
middle class, 50 percent of respondents said they trusted Obama
over Republicans, who were favored by only 35 percent.
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This does not mean that Obama is guaranteed re-election.
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While Democrats enjoyed watching Republican candidates form a
circular firing squad in Iowa, aided by unprecedented spending by
outside groups called super PACs, they realize that once the GOP
selects a nominee, all that negative campaigning will be aimed at
Obama. A large segment of the GOP hates Mitt Romney, but they hate
Obama more.
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This will be the first presidential election since a pair of 2010
Supreme Court decision cleared the way for unlimited corporate and
individual donations to support independent political
organizations. It is estimated that such contributions to
candidates seeking federal office could reach $6 billion to $7
billion this year.
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On another front, the Washington Post reported Sunday that
Republican officials have created a video catalogue of every word
Obama has uttered since launching his 2008 presidential
campaign.
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The story said, “The GOP playbook is designed to take one of
Obama’s greatest assets – the power of his oratory – and turn it
into a liability.”
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One attack on Obama will feature a 2009 clip from the “Today” show
in which he said that if he could not fix the economy in three
years, “then there’s going to be a one-term proposition.”
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Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus told
the Post, “That’s a clip the American people will hear and
see over and over and over again…The nice thing about Barack Obama
is that he’s given us plenty of material. The one thing he loves to
do is give speeches.”
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Obama plans to use even more speeches to argue that he is a
stronger advocate for the middle-class and unemployed workers than
Republicans. He hopes to depict the GOP as concerned only about the
plight of superrich and keeping tax loopholes for large
corporations.
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Like Harry Truman, who campaigned against a do-nothing Congress,
Obama is drawing a sharp contrast between his administration and
Republicans. However, Obama can’t totally disassociate himself from
Congress if he wants any additional legislative victories. One of
his first tests in 2012 will be to obtain a one-year extension of
unemployment benefits, which is set to expire in less than two
months.
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Obama’s team also must do a better job communicating his message if
he is to win a second term. Many polls show that although Obama’s
personal approval ratings are low, many of the policies he has
proposed – including using a combination of higher taxes on the
wealthy and spending cuts to lower the deficit – resonate with most
voters, including many Republicans.
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Both Democrats and Republicans are disappointed that the economy
remains sluggish.
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When asked on the CBS program “60 Minutes” why he should be
re-elected, Obama replied, “Not only saving this country from a
Great Depression. Not only saving the auto industry. But putting in
place a system in which we’re going to start lowering health care
costs and you’re never going to go bankrupt because you get sick or
somebody in your family gets sick. Making sure that we have
reformed the financial system, so we never again have
taxpayer-funded bailouts and the system is more stable and secure.
Ending Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell. Decimating al Qaeda, including Bin
Laden being taken off the field.”
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He added, “But when it comes to the economy, we’ve got a lot more
work to do. And we’re going to keep on at it.”
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George E. Curry, former editor-in-chief of Emerge magazine and
the NNPA News Service, is a keynote speaker, moderator, and media
coach. He can be reached through his Web site, www.georgecurry.com
You can also follow him at www.twitter.com/currygeorge.
