Missouri Republicans should be alarmed by the political turbulence surrounding President Bush and Congressional Republicans because they are themselves vulnerable to growing voter discontent here in Missouri. The approval ratings for Bush and the GOP-controlled Congress have shrunk to scarily low levels among independent and moderate voters. Public disgust over the war in Iraq launched under false premises, sky-high gas prices, inevitable high heating bills this winter, stagnant wages, and the delayed, unprepared response to Hurricane Katrina – compounded by ethical questions surrounding senior White House officials that may lead to criminal indictment – has become widespread beyond Democrats.
If the president moves toward the political center, he will certainly further alienate conservative leaders who are livid over his nomination of Harriet E. Miers to the Supreme Court and his tilt toward the coveted Latino vote with his suggested immigration policy. This dilemma becomes more urgent with mid-term elections looming in 2006.
If his past actions hold true, Bush will retreat to his now-restive conservative base, which demands policies driven more by ideology than political and fiscal reality. In response to Hurricane Katrina, House Republican leaders are insisting on additional spending cuts to assuage conservatives concerned about the new spending Bush promised in the hurricane’s aftermath. Bush and his advisors are calculating that if they can solidify their conservative base, they have the ability and will to quickly dictate current events to reclaim independent voters.
That cynical strategy is risky. It has its corollaries in state politics where unpopular, poorly reasoned, shortsighted cuts in health care for the uninsured and sluggish higher education funding that is inhibiting economic competitiveness have been imposed by a Republican governor and compliant GOP-dominated legislature. The stern initiatives in the legislature that would criminalize stem cell research reflect an intense right-wing group that is determined to impose its will despite opposition from most voters.
The Missouri GOP will seek other wedge issues to muster a full-force turnout at the next election, since guns and gay marriage are largely moot. (Although there are rumors about a proposal to oppose adoption by gays.) The stem cell issue, an ethical objection of a voter minority, will be a more difficult issue for social conservatives to win.
The growing, widespread discontent of many independents and moderates means irreversible damage to Republicans in the polls and provides a huge opportunity for Democrats – and, let’s hope, for enactment of more enlightened public policies.