When Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez stumped for Cori Bush’s Democratic primary campaign in St. Louis, her many progressive supporters hoped that lighting would strike in Missouri’s 1st Congressional District as it did in New York’s 14th District, where Ocasio-Cortez upset an entrenched incumbent in the Democratic primary. This was not to be, as legacy incumbent Wm. Lacy Clay won easily on August 7 with 81,426 votes (57 percent) compared to 53,056 votes (37 percent) for Bush. However, we think there are lessons for both incumbent and challenger to be taken here.
Given that two other challengers (one of whom withdrew from the race too late to get off the ballot) got 9,188 votes (6 percent) between them, Clay has to face the fact that 43 percent of the district voted against him. Clay has never lost an election and boasted to the New York Times before the primary that he “smoked” his most recent primary challenger, but those are not invincible numbers. He should listen to what the progressives who oppose him are saying, improve his ground game in the district and show greater local engagement. However, some of his past moves (fierce, undoubting support of the NorthSide Regeneration project, past endorsements of Francis Slay and Steve Stenger) have made him permanent enemies among many progressives. It’s interesting that he did not host an election watch party on Tuesday; we suspect he feared an enthusiasm gap between his and Bush’s campaigns would not have played well, and we suspect he was correct.
As for Bush, a protest leader who was seriously injured physically during her campaign yet battled on, she might reconsider her top-down electoral strategy. Before she ran and lost for the U.S. House, she ran for the U.S. Senate and lost. She is moving closer to earth, but she should realize that most successful politicians start the other way. The two primary opponents who beat her – Jason Kander and Clay – both started their careers in the state House of Representatives, as did Bruce Franks Jr. – a progressive candidate many expect to bid for higher office soon. Lightning can strike, and an Ocasio-Cortez can win a hot primary for Congress in her first electoral bid, but by far the surer path is to win a lower office, develop campaign strategies in a smaller field, garner name recognition and then, once elected, start to learn legislative procedures and prove political skill to constituents. Taking long-shot bids for higher office without working your way up is, of course, anyone’s prerogative, it’s just not a very promising strategy for political success.
