State Auditor Nicole Galloway is in a statistical tie with Missouri Governor Mike Parson with 17% of voters undecided, according to a new Saint Louis University/YouGov Poll of likely Missouri voters.
The poll – of 900 likely Missouri voters interviewed between June 23 and July 1 – also found Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump by 7%, with 4% of voters undecided.
Galloway, who received The St. Louis American’s endorsement in the August 4 Democratic Primary, polled at 39% and Parson at 41%.
“While Parson leads Galloway, the results of our poll show a statistical tie,” said Kenneth Warren, associate director of the Saint Louis University/YouGov poll. “Given the high percentage of undecided voters, there is a lot of uncertainty in this race just four months from election day.”
Both Parson and Galloway still need to win a primary election to advance to the general election, but neither has a challenger who has mounted a credible campaign.
Both Parson and Galloway have been elected statewide before. Parson was elected lieutenant governor in 2016 and became governor upon the resignation of Eric Greitens. Galloway was elected auditor in 2016 after being appointed to the position after the suicide of Thomas Schweich.
In the poll, not surprisingly, Parson shows strong support among white, Republican, Evangelical voters living disproportionately in rural Missouri, while Galloway’s strength was found in Democratic strongholds in the Kansas City and St. Louis metro areas. Galloway’s support is bolstered by significant support among African American voters who overwhelmingly favor Democratic candidates.
“A potential explanation for the tightening governor’s race is how Parson has handled the COVID-19 crisis and the economy,” said Steven Rogers, director of the Saint Louis University/YouGov poll. “Forty-seven percent of likely voters disapprove of how the governor has handled the COVID pandemic, and 71% of likely voters rate the Missouri economy as Fair or Poor. Given the pandemic’s impact on the state’s economy and the number of undecided voters in the governor’s race, it will be interesting to see how the pandemic plays out over the final few months of the campaign.”
Overall, less than half of Missouri voters approve of the Governor’s job performance. Forty-five percent of voters polled stated they approved of Parson’s performance, with a 43% disapproval rating. Parson’s approval rating among Missouri Republicans is 79% but only 16% among Democratic voters.
YouGov’s opt-in survey panel is comprised of 1.2 million U.S. residents who have agreed to participate in YouGov Web surveys. Using their gender, age, race, and education, YouGov weighted the set of survey respondents to known characteristics of registered voters of Missouri voters from the 2018 Current Population survey. The margin of error for the weighted data is 3.95%.
As for Trump, he still shows strong support among voters without a college degree, but his support among four-year college graduates is sharply down. “Among college graduates, Trump’s support has fallen from 55% support in 2016 to 41% in our poll,” Warren said. “While 45% of males with four-year college degrees say they will vote for Trump, only 36% of four-year college degreed women say they will.”
