A new report offers good news, albeit with a significant reservation, to St. Louis law enforcement authorities considering replicating Kansas City’s crime prevention efforts.
Kansas City’s No Violence Alliance’s efforts to deter likely offenders from violent activity corresponded to a “dramatic and significant reduction in homicides” in 2014, according to the criminologists at the University of Missouri-Kansas City (UMKC) who authored the report.
But the report authors also found that progress began to slow or reverse as the program hit its 12-month mark. The authors suggest that the No Violence Alliance’s efforts may suffer from a decay effect, meaning that their effectiveness may wear off over time.
The No Violence Alliance formed in 2012, but did not begin full implementation of its crime prevention program until the start of 2014. Staff within the police department, local and federal prosecutors’ offices, state probation and parole office, federal law enforcement offices, mayor’s office, and UMKC work together to identify violent groups and their members.
“Developing those ‘social networks’ of violent groups initially took months,” the report authors recounted. “This process is now the norm and, depending on the complexity of the group, can be accomplished in minutes or hours.”
Staff then meet with the identified individuals to inform them of the No Violence Alliance’s stick-and-carrot approach. The individuals can take advantage of social services coordinated through the No Violence Alliance. Whether they do so or not, they’re told that law enforcement has identified them and is prepared to hammer down on them if necessary.
Such crackdowns “are structured in advance and then rapidly executed, exactly as promised, whenever a violent incident occurs,” the report authors noted.
The approach is called focused deterrence because it hones in on the small groups of individuals that law enforcement believes are responsible for an outsized share of the city’s violence.
Preliminary data showed that the number of homicides and gun-related assaults decidedly fell in Kansas City in 2014. The new report places the data in the context of the No Violence Alliance’s efforts.
Reported homicides and gun-related assaults fell 26.5 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively, relative to the previous four years’ average. Plus, the No Violence Alliance helped 142 individuals receive various social services in 2014, according to Ken Novak, one of the report authors.
But the report authors noted that “the rate of violence in one month could impact the rate of violence in subsequent months.” While the data showed impressive crime reduction trends one, two, and six months after program implementation, the trend was less favorable 12 months after implementation. In fact, gun-related assaults were actually increasing at the 12-month mark.
The report authors attempted to explain this change, noting: “It is possible that focused deterrence becomes routine for group and gang members, and levels of violence slowly increase back to pre-project levels.”
Additionally, the authors noted that the overall drop in homicides and gun-related assaults could just be the result of chance.
Regardless, Kansas City is on track to have a similar number of homicides as the 80 it had last year. As of September 4, the Kansas City Police Department reported 56 homicides in 2015. The City of St. Louis, by contrast, reported 136 homicides in the same period.
The 2014 numbers caught the attention of St. Louis Circuit Attorney Jennifer Joyce, who led a delegation of area law enforcement officials to Kansas City to learn more about the program in February. At the time, Joyce expressed interest in bringing the program to St. Louis.
Joyce has since said that she won’t run for reelection in 2016. Nonetheless, she has pledged to focus on reducing gun violence in St. Louis during her final year and a half on the job. The FBI recently announced it has implemented a similar program in St. Louis, in partnership with a similar array of law enforcement partners in various jurisdictions.
Local leaders have the opportunity to learn from Kansas City’s growing pains. Confused communication and bureaucratic intransigence initially hamstringed the program, according to the report authors.
The report authors also underscored the importance of a nimble and open-minded police force.
“The importance of appreciating how a particular policing innovation reconciles with the existing officer culture and departmental traditions cannot be overstated,” the report authors note.
“Departments that are more closely aligned with the standard model of policing – ‘one-size-fits-all’ application of reactive strategies to suppress crime’ – are likely to be more challenged when implementing innovations that involve diverse approaches and a high degree of focus.”
Kevin Flannery is a St. Louis American intern and a student at the Washington University School of Law.
