Of the St. Louis American
Now that Tuesday’s state primary results are in, Missouri Democrats know (for the most part) what and whom they are up against in the momentous general election of November 4, 2008, with an African American at the top of their national ticket for the first time in history.
Significantly more Republicans voted for governor in the primary than did Democrats. Granted, Republicans had a heatedly contested primary (which Kenny Hulsof won, confidently) whereas Jay Nixon ran virtually unopposed, but Nixon and the state party need to look at those numbers – and ask themselves why a completely unopposed Robin Carnahan received more statewide votes than Nixon did in her reelection as secretary of state.
One answer seems likely: Some Democrats – many of them black – skipped Nixon on Tuesday. Consider that in the city of St. Louis, Carnahan received nearly 2,500 more votes than Nixon did, while a no-name opponent (Daniel Carroll) took nearly 5,000 votes away from Nixon. Clearly, Nixon’s abrasive leadership style and his past opposition to funding for school desegregation have left lasting wounds in this community.
Missouri Democrats must consider the possibility that some voters, especially black voters in St. Louis and Kansas City, will skip him again in November if Nixon doesn’t work to win them over. Certainly, his flat-footed opposition to local control of the St. Louis Police Department, reported in last week’s American, will hurt him here if he doesn’t change his position and scandals in the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department continue to spiral.
Also, though Sam Page (D) and Peter Kinder (R) both won their lieutenant governor primaries with confidence, Kinder’s numbers suggest that Republican loyalists are not holding his incumbency against him in an election cycle that promises to be hard on Republican incumbents. Given that Kinder has networked in St. Louis (in particular, in both the business and the black communities) for years, Page cannot take this urban base for granted as he continues to work for statewide name and message recognition.
A tough primary fight for state treasurer has left Democrats with a very strong candidate in Clint Zweifel, but he starts the general campaign with half of the funds of his Republican rival, Brad Lager, who was unopposed in the primary and has been raising money in the last few weeks while Zweifel was spending heavily to win his primary. Zweifel has the markings of a longterm high-level leader for Missouri Democrats, and the party would be wise to shift significant resources to his campaign in an effort to elect him to statewide office.
The Democrats have a stern test ahead in the attorney general race. The divisive, former Republican Chris Koster may have won a nailbiter against Margaret Donnelly (with Jeff Harris, somewhat surprisingly, a distant third – and spoiler Molly Williams doing little but siphoning a small but critical margin of the woman vote away from Donnelly).
The race was so close that some 500 uncounted votes in St. Louis County kept Donnelly hopeful up until press time, and the state party planned to go into a Unity event today without an official nominee.
If Donnelly’s expected call for a recount doesn’t change the outcome, Missouri Democrats have some work to do. Those Democrats who loathe Koster should remember that establishment Republicans hate him even more intensely and will do all they can to elect Mike Gibbons in November. Gibbons was unopposed in the primary, and he starts the race to November with nearly $350,000 cash in hand, while Koster is heavily in debt. While it would be strange indeed to extend the “heal the party” admonition in the case of Koster, who spent years as a Republican and only months as a Democrat, it is difficult to imagine what else Democrats can do (if Koster is the nominee), other than cede this important position to Gibbons.
“Gibbons led the charge for the Republican agenda, the Medicaid cuts and the rest of it – he was the general,” said Ken Franklin, executive director of the Missouri Democratic Party (the first African American to hold that position).
Franklin said it was essential that Democrats “stand together” behind the party’s nominee, whether it is Donnelly or Koster.
If Koster is the nominee, African Americans may have a critical role to play in rallying Democrats around him. If they can hold the Koster campaign accountable on a number of important campaign promises – adding a division of the AG office devoted to civil rights and disability issues, hiring an African American as one of his three top executive staffers, reconsidering the Reggie Clemons case – then they may develop enough trust in Koster to become the party’s strongest advocates for his candidacy.
The healing begins today, with a Unity event convened by the state party in Kansas City. Franklin headed into that public event with a spirit of optimism.
“The people are ready for change,” he said. “They are ready to embrace change.”
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Jay Nixon’s opposition to local control of the St. Louis Police Department will hurt him here if he doesn’t change his position.