Can’t you count?
I find it incredible how those who have analyzed the results of the 4th State Senatorial District primary election blame the results on the turnout of the black voter. They do no realize that the 4th State Senatorial District is a majority white district, not black.
After the 2000 census, when the district was reapportioned, it was drawn 53 percent black; however, the voting age population was only 48 percent black. That means that the majority of the voters in the district were white. Furthermore, voting rights cases have shown that black voters register at a 5 percent rate lower than white voters and turnout at a 5 percent rate lower than whites. Thus any black person contemplating running in that district should have understood that the black voter base was only 38 percent of the total. Furthermore, note that over the last six years since the 2000 census, there has been a lot of new home construction and rehabilitation of homes in that district, drawing in large numbers of white voters while black voters have moved out. Therefore, the white vote had increased even more in the district by 2006. The two white candidates thus ended up with a combined total of 59 percent of the vote, while the combined vote of the black candidates was only 41 percent.
Theoretically, since Jeff Smith ended up winning with 36 percent of the vote, had there been but one black candidate who would have taken 41 percent of the vote, that black candidate then would have won. Which candidate should that have been? El-Amin who had 24 percent of the vote, or Boykin who ended up with 12 percent of the vote, or even Kenny Jones with 3 percent? Given the demographics of the district, under no circumstance could Yaphett El-Amin win in the 4th State Senatorial District. Even though she got more votes than Amber Boykins, Boykins was the best hope to win the district by a black person.
Why do I say Boykins and not El-Amin? Boykins had inroads into the South Side that El-Amin did not have. Boykins had crossover appeal, the support of Kim Tucci and had ties to Mayor Francis Slay. Without El-Amin in the race those connections would have made Boykins the winner. On the other hand, El-Amin had no crossover appeal, and Kenny Jones would not have pulled out of the race for El-Amin. Given the danger of El-Amin winning, the white voters would have been more solidly behind Jeff Smith. Furthermore, Boykins was term-limited and forced to run for the Senate. On the other hand, El-Amin could have spent four more years in the House, and thus she had nothing to lose from waiting until 2010 to run for the office.
A final note: After the 2000 census, there was an effort made to make the 4th district solidly white and the 5th district solidly black. Both districts were made marginally black with the view that a black incumbent would be in place. With Jeff Smith’s victory, after the 2010 census, we can be sure that the 4th district will be drawn solidly white, and the 5th district drawn solidly black. Thus, the 4th district has been lost as a black district forever. Hopefully, potential black candidates will come together in 2008 and agree to support one black candidate, so that the 5th state Senatorial district will not end up electing a white state senator.