The March 7 Primary is less than a week away and we’ve got some Election Day predictions to share with you! But before we dive into Aldergeddon, there are two other issues we’d like to call to your attention today.
The first is the recent assault by un-elected Attorney General Andrew Bailey against our democratically-elected Circuit Attorney Kimberly Gardner. This column will be the first to acknowledge that we have been among the many voices calling for more accountability from her office, including her office’s recent missteps in wrongfully charging the victim of a hit-and-run by Alderman Brandon Bosley or ongoing excessive cash bail practices despite campaign promises to the contrary. On the other hand, we have applauded Circuit Attorney Gardner’s hard-fought victory that she helped to achieve for Lamar Johnson, where she had strong support from activists and in the community. Last week, Bailey’s office announced that it was filing the legal paperwork to ask the Missouri Supreme Court to remove Gardner from office because of what the Attorney General has perceived to be “a long history of failure to prosecute violent crime, with a backlog of at least 3,000 cases.”
If Attorney General Bailey bothered to do his homework, he would learn that crime in St. Louis has been on the decline since local control of the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department was restored to the city following a 2012 vote. Voters in St. Louis overwhelmingly chose to take back control of our policing. Our declining violent crime numbers have shown that local control is key to addressing a community’s public safety problems.
Since former SLMPD police chief Sam Dotson invented “the Ferguson effect” – a term used to describe a perceived increase in crime following mass protests against police violence – state officials have been salivating at the opportunity to gain control over St. Louis. We do not dispute that some dysfunction in Gardner’s office has created a downward spiral and we echo Mayor Tishaura Jones’ calls for Gardner to “do some soul searching on whether or not she wants to continue as circuit attorney.”
Civil rights activists including Rev. Darryl Gray have charged that the system has been rigged from the start, and the history of the public persecution of Gardner would seem to support this serious allegation. We look to last year’s “rogue” grand jurors, who broke all decorum and protocol to write a letter to a St. Louis judge to ask for “stronger” action against Gardner. No action was taken for their law-breaking.
We firmly refute the Attorney General’s efforts to take over the City prosecutor’s office, especially as the Republican-dominated state legislature is attempting to regain control of SLMPD. What we do see is yet another Missouri Attorney General who has stepped out of place to push yet another racist agenda over our city to satisfy the state’s MAGA voters.
In her petition, Hogan alleges that the district was aware of ongoing, race-based harassment and threats hurled at Hogan and other Black employees, and despite this awareness, the district failed to step in to protect its employees.
Speaking of forced racist takeovers, the Rockwood School District may finally have to answer for its allowiance of a group of parents – drenched in white supremacy and bigotry – to bully, harass, and physically threaten Black district employees. As we’ve anticipated for some time, a day of reckoning – and sunlight – has arrived.
Last week, SLPS Board of Education Member Brittany Hogan filed a racial discrimination lawsuit against her former employer, the Rockwood district. In her petition, Hogan alleges that the district was aware of ongoing, race-based harassment and threats hurled at Hogan and other Black employees, and despite this awareness, the district failed to step in to protect its employees.
Reading the allegations of Hogan’s lawsuit was infuriating: time and time again, Hogan reported racist abuse by white parents as Rockwood reportedly refused to intervene. At one point, Hogan told district administration, “As the only Black woman in district leadership, I am concerned and uncomfortable of how quickly I’ve become the scapegoat of White rage.” Social media posts targeting Hogan were discussed at a meeting of district-wide leaders, so at one point, every administrator in the Rockwood School District seemingly was aware of the racial abuse that Hogan suffered.
And yet – the White school administrators failed to act.
Adding another complicating factor to this situation is the potential involvement of Sixth District St. Louis County Councilman Ernie Trakas, who has been heavily involved with the litigation assault against St. Louis-area public schools. In a previous column, the EYE reported that Trakas may have met with St. Louis County parents to explain how they could sue their school districts over COVID mitigation strategies, teaching accurate racial history, and promoting diversity and inclusion in schools for schoolchildren of all backgrounds. We also have seen social media posts by parents invested in terrorizing the Rockwood School District that may serve as a link between Trakas, the district, and the abuse and violence aimed at Hogan.
The EYE does not see Hogan as a woman who will back down. We commend her for taking the brave first step of sharing her side of the story. We will keep a close watch on this lawsuit as the case moves forward in St. Louis County Circuit Court.
—
Finally, you likely turned to this column in the first place to see the EYE’s predictions for the first round of Aldergeddon!
Below are our EYE-drops for next week’s primary election, with some admitted speculations. Also importantly, a number of the polling places have changed since the last aldermanic races, and in some wards, the number of precincts have reportedly been reduced. From accounts of some voting rights activists, previous ADA-related issues from last year’s election days have not been resolved and voters with mobility concerns should double-check their polling locations for accessibility. Weather is always a consideration for St. Louis municipal elections, and while the National Weather Service predicts a moderate chance of rain, overall temperatures are expected to be in the 60s on Election Day.
Ward 1: We predict that incumbent Anne Schweitzer will proceed to the April 4 General Election, with deputy sheriff Tony Kirchner defeating Republican committeeman Matthew Kotraba. Schweitzer’s undeniable voter engagement record will propel her past both of her male opponents.
Ward 2: We predict that incumbent Tom Oldenburg and political newcomer Katie Bellis will move forward to the general election on April 4. Bellis has had a strong grassroots army behind her to expand her voter outreach and engagement, while Oldenburg has the incumbent advantage, a vanilla personality, and nothing else.
Ward 3: Incumbent Shane Cohn is running unopposed. We predict that he will win both the Primary and General Elections.
Ward 4: We predict that both incumbents Bret Narayan and Joe Vacarro will proceed to the General Election. Narayan has a strong volunteer base and MO Political Consulting running his campaign. Vacarro, who has name recognition and years of constituent services, reportedly has received only one campaign donation from his ward in his most recent MEC filing.
Ward 5: Incumbent Joe Vollmer and Grove business owner Helen Petty are the only two candidates on the ballot, so we expect to see both on the April 4 ballot.
Ward 6: Former alderwoman Jennifer Florida and public relations executive Daniela Velázquez are the only two candidates on the ballot, so we expect to see both on the April 4 ballot.
Ward 7: We predict that SLPS School Board Member Alisha Sonnier and hip hop artist Cedric “C-Sharp” Redmon will move forward to the general election. Less than ten percent of C-Sharp’s campaign contributions listed on his most recent report actually came from the new ward, but he’s got more local name recognition than fellow candidate JP Mitchom, the diversity director of St. Louis Priory School, a private school in St. Louis County. But that name recognition won’t be enough to counter Sonnier’s grassroots game, where she’s knocked on nearly 10,000 doors in a ward with less than 14,000 registered voters and has collected nearly every citywide and incumbent aldermanic endorsement.
Ward 8: We predict that community activist Shedrick “Nato Caliph” Kelley and incumbent Cara Spencer will move forward to the general election. Kelley’s strong support for SLPS and public services will be a great match-up to Spencer’s recent political kerfuffle, where she attempted to orchestrate the construction of a new Kairos charter school behind the backs and without the consent of Marine Villa residents. We’ve heard that Kelley has been knocking on doors since before the holidays and building substantial community support.
Ward 9: We predict that incumbent Michael Gras and political newcomer Michael Browning will move forward to the general election. Incumbent alderwoman Tina Pihl reported the largest amount of contributions among the three candidates in her most recent MEC Report (the 40 days from general election filing), but her reports also show that she’s not spending money on campaign literature and canvassers – at least to the same extent as her male opponents. Both Gras and Browning show extensive campaign activity on their campaign disclosures.
Ward 10: Incumbent Shameem Clark-Hubbard and Emmett Coleman are the only two candidates on the ballot, so we expect to see both on the April 4 ballot.
Ward 11: Incumbent Laura Keys and community activist Carla “Coffee” Wright are the only two candidates on the ballot, so we expect to see both on the April 4 ballot.
Ward 12: We predict that incumbent Sharon Tyus and Baden business owner Tashara Earl will move forward to the General Election. Only three of the five candidates have filed with the MEC to register their campaigns. Earl has shown a strong grassroots presence throughout the entire new ward and she has reported the most robust campaign financial numbers. Tyus has not filed a finance report since July 2021, citing “limited activity” for her campaigning for more than a year and a half and leaving us to wonder how she’s paying for all those yard signs.
Ward 13: We predict that incumbents Pamela Boyd and Norma Walker will move forward to the general election, based solely on the fact that they seem to be fundraising and spending campaign dollars. Incumbent Lisa Middlebrook has the same issue as fellow incumbent Tyus, in that “limited reporting” does not paint an encouraging picture for a candidate running a contested campaign, nor does “limited reporting” assume that a candidate has support from their constituents.
Ward 14: We predict that incumbent Brandon Bosley and current State Representative Rasheen Aldridge will move forward to the general election. Bosley managed to hit a woman with his car – on video and according to SLMPD – yet walked away without any criminal charges, but he faces a tough political opponent in Aldridge, who enters March 7 with the support of Mayor Jones, former state representative Bruce Franks, as well as numerous labor endorsements. Bosley has not reported any campaign activity since April 2021. We predict that incumbent James Page will not advance, due to his recent retention of the People’s Strategies – best known for their role in the fraudulent Port Authority scheme of former St. Louis County Executive Steve Stenger. We predict that political newcomer Ebony Washington will not advance to April 4.
