The success or failure of 6th Ward Alderman Lewis Reed in his quest to unseat Jim Shrewsbury, the current incumbent president of the Board of Aldermen, will largely hinge upon one major factor: Lewis’ ability to raise enough money to adequately fund a city-wide campaign and convince the undecided that he has a legitimate shot.
Reed and his supporters need to understand that Shrewsbury will mortgage everything he owns to finance his campaign. In simple, mathematical terms, Reed needs to raise a minimum amount of $250,000 just to be competitive. Reed needs to devote at least three hours each day trying to find 250 people who will give him a thousand dollars each – not promise him a thousand dollars, but dip into their pockets and give him a thousand dollars. Or, after campaign finance limits are lifted on January 1, he needs to find a larger number of supporters who can cough up bigger dough.
Notwithstanding how committed Reed or his supporters may be, an under-funded campaign will be deflating. It also would hamper the campaign’s ability to convince people who may be sitting on the sidelines that Reed can really win. Spiritual commitment will provide smiles on the faces of Reed and his supporters, but without enough money to finance a competitive campaign, they will be walking around with their ribs showing for the next four years.
If Reed builds a sufficient war chest, he can win. Shrewsbury comes into this campaign with political baggage that can be exploited. He has never done well against a strong candidate in the Central Corridor nor in more integrated wards. Coupled with a strong performance in the predominately African-American North St. Louis wards, a well-funded and well-organized campaign can win. Moral support is free, but postage, printing, advertisement, phone banks and staff are not.
Reed’s supporters also need to thicken their skin about the effort by Shrewsbury and his supporters to link him to Mayor Francis G. Slay. Any half-smart campaign analyst can figure out that linking Reed to Slay will hurt him among African Americans. The best way for Reed’s campaign to counter any such accusation is to secure significant endorsements from credible black leaders and communicate directly to black voters through mail and advertisements – which, of course, will cost money.