The political chattering class got this one right, so far.
Early in the 2010 Census process, everyone in St. Louis who offers opinions on these matters predicted Missouri would lose a congressional seat, that the St. Louis area would lose one of its three congressional seats (either the 1st, 2nd or 3rd district), and probably U.S. Rep. Russ Carnahan would lose his job in the 3rd Congressional District.
Indeed, Missouri lost one of its nine congressional seats by a whisker. And indeed, last week the redistricting committee in the Missouri House of Representatives released its new congressional map of Missouri, which draws the 3rd Congressional District as Carnahan knows it – and Dick Gephardt knew it before him – out of existence. A Missouri congressional delegation that has been splitting 6 Republicans to 3 Democrats will now split 6 Republicans to 2 Democrats.
That’s the bad news.
But there is another perspective for Black St. Louis, and more particularly the supporters of U.S. Rep. Wm. Lacy Clay. Clay’s 1st Congressional District – represented before him by his father, Congressman Bill Clay – survives relatively intact. If anything, it is strengthened for a black candidate.
The House version of the redistricting map, which Diehl’s committee approved by a vote of 10-1 on Tuesday, includes a 1st CD African-American population of just under 51 percent, virtually identical to the racial makeup of Clay’s current district. Voter universe in a Democratic primary projects that black voting strength in the 1st CD will increase to 62.5 percent of all Democratic voters. “The voters Clay picks up are all in a very compact and contiguous area, and that’s what’s supposed to happen,” state Rep. John J. Diehl Jr. (R – St. Louis County), who chaired the House committee, told The American.
Diehl said the Missouri Legislature is not subject to federal review as mandated by the Voting Rights Act of 1965, yet his committee “was sensitive to the fact that to the extent we can we wanted to preserve a minority district in a way that is compact and contiguous. And I think that’s what happened.”
Diehl’s committee included two black reps from the St. Louis area, state Rep. Jamilah Nasheed and freshman state Rep. Penny Hubbard, both Democrats. Nasheed was on the record with this paper as being dedicated to preserve the integrity of the 1st Congressional District.
“Nasheed and Hubbard played a similar role that all committee members involved in the process played,” Diehl said. “I sought their input, especially regarding their regions.”
The EYE reminded Diehl that Nasheed had vowed to preserve Clay’s district.
“Look,” Diehl said, “her role in the process was to defend her area, no different than anybody else’s role.”
But she was more successful?
“I’ll let the members of Congress draw that conclusion,” Diehl said.
The map that drew itself
Many millions of federal dollars, as well as the partisan balance in the U.S. House, are at stake in this process. Not many political observers would accept as true any account of this as a transparent and fair process. But that is Diehl’s story, and he is sticking to it.
“You start looking at where there have been population losses, and you make the commitment to draw, all things considered, compact districts – and the map starts drawing itself,” Diehl said.
Carnahan has pointed out – The American has agreed with him in an editorial – that the St. Louis metropolitan area still has the population numbers to merit three congressional seats, even with the discouraging population losses revealed by the Census. Diehl – who lives in Town & Country in St. Louis County and represents the 87th District in the state House – has answers to all that.
Counting himself, five of his 12 committee members represent state districts in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd congressional districts – that is, the St. Louis area. In that sense, he suggests, he stacked the deck as much as he could.
“It’s kind of hard to justify two congressmen from the same county – the City of St. Louis is a county, for these purposes – with that county being the one that lost the most population over the past decade,” Diehl said.
“It’s pretty hard to justify that. The fact that nobody could draw a map that does otherwise during the month-long process bears that out.”
What about Carnahan’s math that shows the St. Louis region has the numbers for three congressional districts?
“No doubt, the St. Louis metropolitan area has just under two million people, though it depends on where you draw the lines,” Diehl said. “Every one of those people will be represented by a congressman, just as they are right now.”
St. Louis might not like it, Diehl said, but the new map makes more sense.
“Right now the 2nd District goes almost to Hannibal, the 3rd District goes all the way down to St. Genevieve the way it is now, part of St. Charles is in a district that goes all the way to the Iowa border the way it is now,” Diehl said. “Our map does consolidate the districts around St Louis. The districts will be much tighter than they are now.”
Above all, Diehl insisted, no one showed him anything different that was better.
“Nobody really proposed a substantially dissimilar map, and I did get input. We offered all the congressional representatives to submit us their proposed maps,” Diehl said. Even Russ Carnahan?
Even Russ Carnahan. “Carnahan’s people never submitted one to us,” Diehl said.
Nixon 2012
Politics being politics, everyone who watches the game will be watching for evidence of dirty deals and back-alley political assassinations. Nasheed and Hubbard will be watched.
Their choices as black Democrats for the committee – picked by white Republicans – were understood from the beginning to have political motivation. Hubbard inherited the political operation and loyalties of her son, former state Rep. Rodney Hubbard, who worked very closely with House Republicans. The Hubbard’s fit into a well-established pattern in the city of St. Louis – Democrats on election day, but open for business every other day of the year.
As for Nasheed, she has close personal relationships with both of the Republicans expected at the top of the ticket in 2012: Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder and state Rep. Steve Tilley, who will run for governor and lieutenant governor.
Nasheed and Hubbard are not the only problems the Democrats will have in St. Louis in 2012. Many St. Louis Democrats voted for Kinder over Sam Page in the last lieutenant governor race, and Kinder has as many personal relationships among St. Louis Democrats as incumbent Gov. Jay Nixon. Kinder has worked hard for those relationships. Nixon lumbers into town, expecting deference as a ranking Democrat, while Kinder works every room like a politician hungry for every vote he can hustle.
So far, in the redistricting process, which is far from over, Clay and the 1st Congressional District are prevailing, but quite possibly at the expense of Nixon’s 2012 gubernatorial race.
