It is now official. State Auditor Claire McCaskill has announced that she will forgo what would have been easy re-election next year to run for the U.S. Senate against well-funded incumbent Republican Senator Jim Talent. The pressure has been mounting for several months from Democratic Party officials who think that McCaskill can be part of a resurgence of the party in 2006. The Democrats believe the President George W. Bush’s weak poll numbers on the quagmire in Iraq mean the Republicans can be hurt badly in 2006.
Maybe so. Maybe not. But why do the Democrats and McCaskill think she can beat Talent? Perhaps because the Democratic Party foolishly relies on consultants and pollsters whose livelihood depends on the millions of dollars they help candidates raise to stage these hopeless, quixotic campaigns.
There is a difference between Republican and Democratic consultants. Republican consultants do not have to convince the party base that their candidates are on their side; successful Republicans tend to be one-dimensional. Democratic consultants, on the other hand, use the triangulation theory (perfected doing the Clinton administration) and try to make their candidates look like they stand for everything and everyone. As a result, Democrats suffer a backlash from voters who can not figure out what they believe in.
The McCaskill campaign exploited the triangulation theory by staging her announcement in Texas County, the rural Republican area where she was born, instead of Kansas City or St. Louis, her urban base. Despite the theatrics, the people in McCaskill’s hometown are not going to be any more motivated to vote for McCaskill against Talent than they were in her failed bid for governor.
There are enough Democratic voters in St. Louis (city and county), Kansas City and Jackson County for McCaskill to win, but that will require a change in strategy to wage a more street and retail campaign in the urban areas. That would shut out a statewide media campaign, which in turn would reduce the amount of fees paid to these triangulation theorists.
