The St. Louis Cardinals are in third place, out of the playoffs and trailing the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Central Division.
This is what I predicted would happen during the 2008 season.
But I’m neither happy nor satisfied. I, like millions of other Cardinals fans, want more.
So it is frustrating to see the team in the thick of the pennant race at 11 games above .500 and just three games out of the Wild Card playoff slot.
Here is why.
With all the blown saves, injuries and shaky performances, the bullpen has actually held its own this season. Jason Isringhausen has stunk as closer, an unforeseen problem when the season began. The ripple effect impacted the entire bullpen.
The starting rotation has overachieved. Kyle Lohse stands at 13-4, Braden Looper has been invaluable and when/if Adam Wainwright returns, the staff will be as close to whole as it has been all season. If the Redbirds shut down Chris Carpenter today for the rest of the season it would be OK with me, by the way.
The starting staff has overachieved.
Troy Glaus has proven to be far superior to Scott Rolen (on the DL again) this season. Albert Pujols was injured early, lost his pop at the plate for a bit, but is coming around. Ryan Ludwick is the team MVP, and if Rick Ankiel can stay healthy the rest of the season, he could put up some very solid numbers.
The starting lineup has overachieved.
Brian Barton will return this week after recovering from an injury and playing well at Triple-A Memphis. This will solidify a bench that doesn’t have a lot of power, but has maintained a decent batting average and on-base percentage.
The bench has overachieved.
So, who hasn’t overachieved since the season began?
The front office.
Give credit where credit is due for the Lohse and Glaus acquisitions.
But the trading deadline has come and gone. Stars, including Adam Dunn, has been acquired by contending teams through the waiver process. He wouldn’t have fit in here, but that’s not the point.
The Cards have done nothing.
That’s not to say the team should have traded away key prospects for far from sure-fire solutions.
But the team has been left on the vine to wither and die. That’s the reality.
But I’m a never-say-die kinda guy, and so is Tony La Russa.
The guy that can be so frustrating also can be a pillar of strength.
La Russa has not panicked, nor should his team. Cardinal Nation sounds like it needs a straightjacket right now, but the postseason is still there for the picking.
Tony knows what it will take. If the team wins 91 games it would close at 20 games above .500.
There is your “magic number.” It’s not about the Cubs or the Brewers until the Cardinals face them in respective series. It’s about 91 wins. It’s about finishing 20 games over .500.
It won’t be easy, but it is not impossible.
It won’t guarantee that the Cubs and Brewers will fold. But if the Redbirds keep grinding and keep the pressure on the two teams ahead of them, at least one of them will crack.
My guess is that it will be the Brewers and overmatched manager Ned Yost.
But don’t count out a Cubs’ late August-September swoon.
Peter Gammons pretty much has them in the World Series already. It’s possible that the team won’t make the playoffs.
Am I crazy? No. They are the Cubs.
