If the St. Louis Cardinals win 88 games, I think they’ll sneak into the playoffs as a wild card team. Anything less, and there will be no postseason for a second consecutive year.
Should the Cardinals not make the playoffs, look for a change in the manager’s office. In fact, if the team struggles during the season’s first half, Mike Matheny could be asked to leave come the All-Star Game break.
I’m not predicting he’ll get fired. I’m saying it could happen if the team stumbles out the gate and is still playing mediocre baseball come summer.
Barring a slew of injuries to the Chicago Cubs – with several pitchers going down – St. Louis is looking at a second-place finish in the NL Central. After finishing a whopping 17.5 games behind the Cubs last year, I don’t see much chance in surpassing the reigning world champions.
The good news for the Cardinals is that they reside in the weak NL Central.
If the Pittsburgh Pirates are markedly improved in 2017, I still don’t see them in the playoffs. However, if the Bucs’ win total is anywhere near 88, it hurts the Cardinals’ chances of reaching that plateau. Without 88 wins, St. Louis is without playoff baseball.
The Cincinnati Reds and the Milwaukee Brewers will field teams in 2017 that could both lose 90-plus games. That will help the Cards amass wins. An early season warning of bad things to come would be the Redbirds struggling against either one of these teams – especially at home.
The Cardinals should improve on the dismal 38-43 home record of 2016. It will be tough to match MLB-best 48-33 road mark. If the Redbirds play under .500 at home, the road to 88 wins is much bumpier.
The competition for a wild-card slot begins on the West Coast where the L.A. Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants will battle for NL West crown. The Giants led the universe in blown saves last year, but have added Mark Melancon as closer. Of all the offseason maneuvers in baseball, this one will have the most impact on St. Louis. San Francisco will be the top wild-card team.
The NL East will feature the annual showdown between the New York Mets and Washington Nationals. I like the Nationals to win the division and the Mets to fall flat on their collective faces. While their physical talents – when healthy – are magnificent, the “me first” attitudes of pitchers Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom turn me off.
All the hair, muscles and machismo don’t add up to can’t miss 20-win seasons. I think the Mets falter and the Cardinals move into the second wild-card slot.
It will take at least 88 wins though. We can start counting on Sunday.
Behind the black ball
When former San Francisco 49ers Colin Kaepernick continued his protest of kneeling during the national anthem, it had to have dawned on him that he could be ending his playing career in the NFL.
Hopefully, he isn’t shocked that no NFL team has signed him as a free agent during the offseason. Unless a team suffers a major industry late in the preseason, I’m guessing that he will not be on a team come September.
Is he being blackballed?
Yes, says Seattle Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman.
“I’m sure he is (being blackballed),” Sherman told ESPN. “It’s difficult to see because he’s played at such a high level, and you see guys, quarterbacks, who have never played at a high level being signed by teams. So, it’s difficult to understand.”
No, says New York Giants receiver Brandon Marshall, who also defended Commissioner Roger Goodell.
“..the reason why is I was one of those players on the other end of the spectrum,’’ Marshall said Monday at the NFL Annual Meeting.
“I was a player that probably was on my way out of the NFL. I was a troubled kid. I had things going on that I was aware of and I needed time to be able to fix that, and (Goodell) embraced me, he brought me in, he talked to me like he was a coach. He told me what was expected of me and how I needed to protect the shield, and he also gave me the resources I needed to get the help I needed.”
Marshall simply said the commissioner isn’t leading a possible boycott – but he isn’t stopping one by individual owners either.
Honesty must prevail here and I’ll be honest. If I were a general manager and the owner of my franchise asked me about the possibility of bringing in Kaepernick, I’d advise him to pass.
It’s not the 2016 protest (and he says he’ll stand in 2017 by the way), it’s not the $9 million he wants per season, it’s not the fact he wants to start, it’s not the fact that more than half the fan base would be livid – it’s ALL of that put together.
Raiders of the lost cause
NFL owners voted 31-1 to allow the Oakland Raiders to move to Las Vegas. Raiders owner Mark Davis said the team will play in Oakland for at least two seasons, with no real home in 2019 as a new stadium in Las Vegas nears completion.
First, the NFL would have to be crazy to allow the team to play in Oakland in 2018. Next year will be dangerous enough. Oakland is one of the most dangerous places in the NFL for visiting fans. They would be targets for abuse by unhappy and unruly Raiders fans.
This will sound insane, but a two-year trip to St. Louis could be a good idea. The team would leave after a couple of seasons and we would not be heartbroken. The NFL would again be reminded that St. Louis is a decent and deserving NFL town. A win-win if you ask me.
Alvin A. Reid is a panelist on the Nine Network program, Donnybrook and appears on ABC’s The Allman Report and several sports radio shows, including Frank Cusumano’s “The Press Box” on KFNS. His Twitter handle is #aareid1
