According to a study by Urban Institute and Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, the House-approved bill dramatically cutting Medicaid funding now being debated by the Senate would have a cataclysmic impact on American healthcare.
Analysis concludes that hospitals would lose $321 billion in spending from the reconciliation process, physicians would face an $81 billion cut, and spending on prescription drugs would decline by $191 billion from 2025 to 2034.
During that same decade, U.S. hospitals would deal with a $63 billion increase in uncompensated care. services sought by patients and other providers must be delivered without reimbursement.
In Missouri, an estimated 210,000 people could lose coverage by 2034, a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis revealed.
“The Medicaid cuts Congress is considering would be the largest funding reduction in the program’s history, and it is hard to overstate just how devastating the impacts would be,” said Katherine Hempstead, senior policy adviser at the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.
“Such drastic changes to Medicaid financing would have ripple effects that go well beyond people covered by the program, further squeezing hospitals, limiting access to care for entire communities, and destabilizing state and local economies.”
“As Congress considers significant cuts to the Medicaid program and ACA Marketplaces, this analysis can help state and local policymakers and stakeholders consider the potential adverse effects on healthcare coverage, access, and affordability, and the financial vulnerability of certain providers in their state,” said Fredric Blavin, senior fellow at the Urban Institute.
Healthcare spending in the United States would decline by $797 billion over the next decade—with more than one-third of the decline occurring in California, Florida, Texas, and New York—under the congressional spending bill passed by the House of Representatives.
Declines in healthcare spending would exceed $20 billion in nine additional states (Arizona, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Washington).
Hospitals see the biggest decline in spending ($321 billion) during the 2025-34 span, with physicians facing an $81 billion cut.
The United States would see a $204 billion increase in uncompensated care over the next decade.
The largest increases in uncompensated care would be in California ($27.5 billion), Texas ($15.9 billion), New York ($13.1 billion), and Florida ($11.7 billion).
Hospitals would face a $63 billion increase in uncompensated care, and physicians would face a $24 billion increase.
In addition, The Johnson Foundation warns that between 4.6 and 5.2 million adults living in states that expanded Medicaid, which includes Missouri, would lose Medicaid coverage next year under work requirements.
Kaiser Foundation studies show that more than nine in 10 adults with Medicaid expansion coverage already work, are looking for a job, attend school, are caring for family members, are in fair or poor health, or reported having a disability.
If work requirements are not explicitly limited to the Medicaid expansion population, researchers say more than 30 million adults ages 19 to 55 could be subject to them, and coverage losses would be substantially higher, according to the Johnson Foundation.