Missouri Democrats gain new legislative clout

Republicans still control Missouri politics. But after Tuesday’s election, their grip on state government looks considerably less secure.

Democrats ended Republican supermajorities in both legislative chambers, picked up 16 Missouri House seats and ousted a seven-term Republican congresswoman.

The results raise questions about how a Republican Party accustomed to unchecked power will govern when lawmakers return to Jefferson City in January — and whether Tuesday represents a temporary backlash or something more enduring.

By a preliminary count, Democrats won 68 of the 163 Missouri House seats, a gain of 16 from 2024. Another 10 races saw Republicans squeak out wins in districts historically considered safe. That leaves Republicans with 95 seats, their lowest total since the 2008 election, when they won 89.

All this despite Republican House campaigns raising $17.7 million compared with $7.1 million for Democrats.

In the Senate, Democrats won the two seats needed to end another Republican supermajority. State Rep. Betsy Fogle captured a Springfield-based district Republicans had held for more than 80 years. In eastern Jackson County, state Rep. Keri Ingle defeated House Speaker Jon Patterson.

Republicans can still write budgets, pass legislation and set the agenda without a single Democratic vote. But they can no longer override vetoes or make most new laws take effect immediately through emergency clauses without help from across the aisle.

And any divisions among Republicans, already a recurring source of conflict in the Senate, could give Democrats greater leverage to shape the state’s agenda.

The geography of the victories challenged assumptions about where Democrats can compete. The party won three House seats in St. Charles County, where it had gone nearly two decades without a House victory, and captured an open seat in Cass County. In Cole County, home of the state Capitol, Democrat Suzanne Luther defeated Republican Shane Kampeter by just 189 votes.

Republican losses extended to Congress, where Democrat Fred Wellman defeated seven-term U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner in suburban St. Louis. Wellman won St. Louis County by 14 points and cut Wagner’s margin in St. Charles County from roughly 16,000 votes in 2024 to about 4,000.

Eight years ago, the last national Democratic wave left Missouri’s Republican legislative supermajorities intact. Voters raised the minimum wage, rejected right-to-work and approved the Clean Missouri ethics and redistricting overhaul. But they also ousted Democratic U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill and reelected Wagner.

This time, opposition to Republican policies coincided with significant losses for Republican candidates.

Nor was Tuesday a wholesale rejection of Republicans. State Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick won reelection, though by roughly three points after winning by nearly 22 in 2022. Republicans retain the governorship and both legislative chambers, and Democratic gains were concentrated largely in cities and suburbs rather than rural Missouri.

One election cannot establish a lasting realignment. But the consequences are immediate: Kehoe and Republican lawmakers return in January facing falling revenues, pressure on school and healthcare budgets and an electorate newly willing to deny them seats as well as policy victories.

For years, Republicans could assume that losing a ballot measure did not necessarily threaten their grip on power. Tuesday offered the clearest evidence yet that the two can no longer be treated as separate questions.