A friend of mine called to ask me what strategy Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (42-0-1, 30 KO) would need to employ to have a chance at defeating the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world, Floyd “Money” Mayweather Jr. (44-0-0, 26 KO) this Saturday night.
“He’ll need to lead with a stiff jab,” I said. “And he’ll have to pressure, pressure, pressure Mayweather to make him uncomfortable.”
“Oh, you mean he needs to take the Miguel Cotto approach?” he replied.
In that brief moment, I realized how much of an uphill battle the young, redheaded champion will have in his battle to unseat boxing’s current king.
While the 23-year old Alvarez has nearly the same number of fights as the 36-year old Mayweather, the level of opposition isn’t even close. Alvarez’s biggest wins have come against an old Shane Mosley and Austin Trout. While Mayweather has been criticized at times for the top fighters he avoided failed to reach an agreement to fight, his hit list is still a who’s who in boxing over the past. Old Mosley, Cotto, Oscar De La Hoya, Juan Manuel Marquez, Ricky Hatton, Jose Luis Castillo, the late Diego Corrales and numerous other legitimate champions have all fallen to Mayweather.
The “Money Mayweather” persona has turned the pound-for-pound king into a mainstream superstar and the highest-grossing athlete in the world. He’ll earn a record $41 million for a fight expected to challenge the PPV record as well.
Inside the ring, it’s his impeccable shoulder-roll defense and precise counter punching that have kept him undefeated for nearly 17 years as a pro. Long gone are the days when Mayweather would unleash lightning-fast four and five punch combinations. Nowadays he’s content to fire off one or two punches at a time but does so with uncanny accuracy. A look at the numbers show that over his career Mayweather has landed an astounding 41 percent of his punches while limiting his opponents to just 17 percent.
Of course, as the saying goes, “Father Time” is undefeated and at some point Mayweather’s skills will diminish. If you look closely, it’s already happening slowly. De La Hoya had success early with his jab back in 2007 and nearly pulled off an upset. Mosley had Mayweather dizzy for a short time before his conditioning and superior skills took control. Cotto hit Mayweather more often and solidly than he’d been hit in years. Sure, Mayweather chose to stand and trade with Cotto to an extent, but Cotto took advantage and landed some good leather on the defensive wizard.
While Alvarez’s chances of outboxing Mayweather are next to nil, he still has a shot at victory. Unlike Cotto, Canelo is a natural super welterweight and carries power to go with it. Though he’s not known for devastating one-punch knockouts, Alvarez has thudding and lasting power that wears fighters down round by round. Unlike his older opponent, Alvarez still rattles off four- and five-punch combinations at will, especially when his opponents lay on the ropes as Mayweather often does. In order to win, Alvarez will have to use his stiff, underrated jab on the outside and pound Mayweather with hard combinations on the inside.
Sounds easy enough, but as Mayweather loves to boast, “Forty-four have tried and 44 have failed!” Part of the reason for his unblemished record is his uncanny ability to make adjustments on the fly. When opponents give Mayweather trouble, he’s able to diagnose the problem and make adjustments with a round or two. Bernard Hopkins is probably the only other active fighter with a comparable ring IQ.
The surprising boxing lesson Alvarez gave to Trout in his last bout, shows that he has a few wrinkles in his game, but again, he has no chance to outbox Mayweather. Alvarez must be prepared to eat unseen counter punches all night in order to wear down Mayweather with a sustained attack to the body and head. Can he do it? Yes! Alvarez has the tools to upset Mayweather and turn the boxing world upside down. He has enough speed and enough power to walk away with a victory.
Will he? I just don’t think so. Mayweather’s big-fight, championship experience will ultimately be the difference in what should be Mayweather’s closest bout since the De La Hoya victory. Alvarez should make for some interesting and tense moments early in the fight, but in the end Mayweather will outfox the young lion and eek out a close decision win. If the fight is as close as I think it could be, we might be in for an immediate rematch.
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