The St. Louis region is still projected to reach its peak of hospitalizations due to the COVID-19 pandemic around Saturday, April 25 — where up to 1,500 people could be hospitalized at any one time.
“What’s concerning is anticipating what will happen when we do have to start relaxing some of the social-distancing and the shelter-in-place rules,” Dr. Alex Garza, chief medical officer for SSM Health, said on Saturday, April 18. “Looking forward is more what concerns me than looking at the present data.”
Garza is the incident commander for the St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force. The task force includes four major health care systems: BJC HealthCare, Mercy, SSM Health and St Luke’s Hospital.
Every day, Garza gives a briefing on the task force’s COVID-19 statistics that represent 2.8 million people for an area that encompasses surrounding counties in Missouri and Illinois in the larger St. Louis region.
On Monday, the task force reported a significant jump in hospitalizations, of nearly 100 people from Sunday, April 19 to Monday, April 20.
“That was in one day alone,” Garza said, “so that convinced me, and I hope it convinced you, that we are still on the rising side of the curve.”
Garza reported on Tuesday, April 21 that there were 750 people currently hospitalized within the four medical systems. Of those, 187 were in the intensive care unit (ICU) and 130 people were on ventilators.
The task force is planning for the gradual opening of more businesses and public spaces, he said, but the region cannot relax social distancing policies too quickly or there will be devastating consequences.
“We would have to do this all over again,” Garza said. “And, the pain of the last several weeks will be lost if we move too quickly and too soon. Instead, these steps are working.”
The City of St. Louis, St. Louis County and St. Charles County have extended their Stay at Home orders indefinitely.
“This remains a fluid situation,” St. Louis Mayor Lyda Krewson said on Thursday, April 16. “We are not setting an end date. We will revisit this by mid-May. Hopefully, we will have more information to be able to lift that order.”
As part of the city’s order, people are required to wear protective masks when in public, and essential businesses are required to provide the appropriate Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) for their employees. The county has also encouraged this but not required it.
“We have made progress, but now is not the time to weaken the social distancing policies that are working,” said St. Louis County Executive Sam Page.
Missouri Gov. Mike Parson has also extended the statewide “Stay Home Missouri” Order through May 3. However, Parson’s order has been criticized as little more than a social distancing guidance.
Krewson said regional leaders relied on data from the St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Taskforce. Based on the task force’s projections, more than 71,000 people of the region’s 2.8 million people could be infected with the virus by the end of April — though about 30 percent will be asymptomatic. That is down slightly from the task force’s initial estimate of more than 80,000.
“It is a reflection that all of the things we have been doing — including shelter in place, social distancing and other actions — are helping,” said Garza. “But this is still a significant number.”
With 88 deaths in 2,349 cases as of April 21, 3.7% of the people in St. Louis County who were reported positive for COVID-19 had died. With 42 reported deaths from the pandemic in 908 reported cases in the City of St. Louis, 4.6 percent of the people in the city who tested positive had died as of April 21.
The State of Missouri reported that approximately 56,986 people had been tested as of April 20. With approximately 6.17 million people in the state, only 0.92 percent of the population had been tested. Of those reported tested, 10.4 percent have tested positive. Of those who tested positive statewide, 3.2 percent have died.
Garza said the stay-at-home orders should remain in place until we are beyond the peak of hospitalizations and have robust testing and contact tracing capabilities in place.
“It’s going to take time,” Garza said. “We don’t get a second chance at doing it right.”
