Missouri Gov. Mike Parson gave vague ideas about what will happen when he lifts the statewide stay-at-home order on May 4, during his Monday, April 27 press briefing.
While not giving specific guidelines for businesses or individuals, Parson said the first phase of the order will be more like “the turning of a dial and not a flip of a switch.”
When reporters repeatedly asked for more detailed guidelines, Parson said they will come during his daily briefings throughout this week.
Parson’s statewide guidances — even his stay-at-home order was so weak it amounted to guidance — have permitted more restrictive orders, like those in St. Louis County and the City of St. Louis, which will remain in place beyond May 4.
Black clergy leaders with the St. Louis Metropolitan Clergy Coalition said during a press conference on April 28 that they will remind their church members that they need to stay home — and that the governor’s orders do not pertain to them. Some clergy members also questioned Parson’s move to lift the order for the rest of the state.
“There is still so much that we don’t know about government responses to this pandemic,” said Rev. Darryl Gray, political advisor for the coalition, and State Progressive Baptist Social justice chairperson. “We have not reached out to enough people yet to open the state. We still have so much more work to do.”
Parson said Monday that expanding the state’s testing capacity is a major part of the first phase of lifting the order and that the state is prepared to go into COVID-19 hot spots to test. However, the state rolled out its expanded testing strategy in Buchanan County, which is 88% white, when Parson himself has acknowledged that statewide data show a clear, adverse impact on black people.
“How much testing will be necessary for proper revaluations?” Gray asked during the coalition’s press conference. “Who is determining testing site access? Will health treatments for chronic illnesses be part of the post response? We haven’t even factored in the discussion that there are people in the black community who are afraid to take the test.”
During his briefing, Parson fielded questions about whether or not Missouri can meet the White House’s criteria to lift the statewide stay-at-home order on May 4.
One of the president’s three guiding benchmarkers for governors to proceed with a “phased comeback” is a “downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period.” On Monday, Parson responded to reporters’ questions about this saying that he did have this data.
However, according to data analysis by one St. Louis University (SLU) professor, all the real declines in documented cases have actually come from the St. Louis region, and not the rest of the state.
Christopher Prener, assistant professor of sociology at SLU, has been analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases since the middle of March. First of all, he believes the White House’s description of a 14-day decline is vague, and the best way to look at the numbers is a seven-day average — just in case there’s a bunch of new tests one day or other factors.
Taking the St. Louis region out of the state’s numbers, Missouri is not currently far below its peak average of 73.86 cases reported on April 6. The average on April 27 was 66.57, and the state has actually seen an uptick in averages in the last week. And the state has come close to its peak number twice since April 6.
“Our current numbers are trending upwards,” Prener said. “Again, it’s hard to read between the lines of the White House’s website, but if we’ve had several straight days of increase in our chosen metric to track change, then does that then mean we are still on track with the White House’s guidance?”
When asked if he believes that the governor can justify lifting the order with the current data, Prener said that he’s not in a position to evaluate that because the White House has two other benchmarks — one regarding hospitals and one regarding COVID-like symptoms — that states are supposed to meet before lifting stay-at-home orders. That information is not publicly available on the Missouri health department’s website, he said.
In regards to the state’s hospitals, the White House said they need to be able to treat patients without crisis care — and failing that, they need a robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing. There also needs to be a downward trajectory of COVID-like or influenza-like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period.
The St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force releases hospitalization data daily for the St. Louis region’s four major healthcare systems, but statewide data for hospitalizations is not available on the state’s website.
“It’s hard to evaluate the governor’s statement with the data that’s publicly available,” Prener said.
In his April 27 briefing, Parson’s team also said that the state health department has 15 people assigned to contact tracing — which is an essential part in being able to track where people are being exposed to the virus and slow community spread. In comparison, St. Louis County’s health department has 70 people currently doing contact tracing and is currently hiring 100 more people.
“What stands out to me is there’s a number of parts of the state where we’re seeing really significant increases right now,” Prener said “That sort of nuisance about how different the trajectories are in specific regions and specific counties didn’t stand out to me in Parson’s press conference.”
The places that are seeing growth are more rural counties that are just outside of metropolitan areas. Lincoln County in the St. Louis metro is an example, he said. Saline County between Kansas City and Columbia is another one.
“None of these areas seem inclined to continue to stay-at-home orders past May 3, when it expires statewide,” Prener said. “It’s easy in the city where you have a mayor and a county executive who have been very clear that they’re going to continue this, but a lot of counties are following the governor’s lead. These decisions have real consequences for these counties, who right now are experiencing dramatic growth in the number of cases they have.”
St. Charles County, which is just outside of a metropolitan area, has had enough of staying at home, according to County Executive Steve Ehlmann. At the County Council meeting on Monday, April 27, he said the county will follow Parson’s lead.
“The rate of COVID-19 cases per 10,000 population is less than half that of St. Louis city and county,” Ehlmann said. “We believe St. Charles County is ready to reduce restrictions and, while continuing to require social distancing, allow individuals to make decisions on whether to frequent a business.”
