Hospital inpatient data is currently the best barometer for understanding the amount of transmission and community spread of COVID-19, said regional leaders and health experts during their briefings on Monday, May 4.
Both St. Louis County Executive Sam Page and St. Louis Mayor Lyda Krewson said that they will base their decision on when to ease stay-at-home orders on this data.
“Looking at these numbers, it’s a little bit better day to day, but still a very serious situation,” Krewson said during her Facebook live briefing on Monday. “I ask for your patience, and I know it’s hard. But we have to be firm here and continue the stay-at-home order a little longer.”
Every day, the St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force reports the hospitalization numbers for the metropolitan area’s largest healthcare systems: BJC HealthCare, Mercy, SSM Health and St. Luke’s Hospital.
On Monday, there were 653 people who were in the task force’s hospitals and who had either tested positive for COVID-19 or were awaiting test results.
“That’s the lowest it’s been in a week, so that’s encouraging,” said Dr. Alex Garza, incident commander for the task force.
As of May 4, the number of patients in the intensive care units is 164, and the number of people on ventilators is 110.
During his daily briefings, Garza talks about the seven-day moving average of the total number of people in the hospitals — which he says is a good indicator of transmission in the region. That trend line is currently “plateauing,” he said.
However on Monday, he provided another data point for the first time — the seven-day “moving average” of new hospital admissions. On April 9, that seven-day average stood at 59, and today the number is down to 43.
“And that’s a really encouraging trend,” Garza said. “The new hospital admission data is more timely than the hospitalization data because it shows the new admits coming in everyday.”
This trend line will be an “important and timely indicator” as regional leaders are discussing how and when to ease the stay-at-home restrictions, Garza said.
“We need to continue to bring those numbers down,” Garza said, “and that’s going to require the diligence and vigilance of everybody.”
Lifting restrictions too soon could cause a rebound in cases, Garza has said consistently. Medical experts across the country are anticipating a second wave of COVID-19 this fall. However, if restrictions are lifted too soon and fast, it could occur as soon as this summer — before the region has time to replenish Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) for health workers, he said. During the 1918 influenza pandemic, Garza said, the St. Louis region relaxed its social distancing restrictions too soon and there was a second wave of infections that was more devastating than the first. We have a chance to learn from that mistake with the COVID-19 pandemic, he said.
“What we don’t want to happen is for those cases to rebound and then the health care system not adequately be able to take care of that amount of patients,” he said.
Krewson and Page will have more information about a timeline for lifting restrictions later this week. Both have a goal of mid-May, “but neither one of us are prepared to settle on any particular date yet,” Page said during his May 4 briefing. “Our decision will be data-driven.”
The reason they can have that conversation is that people followed “common sense” and health care experts’ advice on social distancing and preventative measures, Page said. Both Page and Krewson are strongly encouraging that people wear protective masks in public.
We still have a significant number of our tests that are positive,” Page said. “We still have a significant prevalence of the virus in our community. We understand that our social distancing and stay-at-home measures have suppressed the viral activity, but we are not where we need to be yet.”
As of May 4, St. Louis County had reported 3,521 COVID-19 cases and 177 COVID-19 deaths, and the City of St. Louis had reported 1,346 cases and 71 deaths, while the State of Missouri had reported 8,754 cases and 358 deaths. Together, the county and city have reported 55.6% of the state’s cases and 69.3% of its deaths from the pandemic.
