The St. Louis region is still on the steep part of the COVID-19 curve, said Dr. Alex Garza, chief medical officer of SSM Health.
“There’s no question that the virus is still going to hit this area and hard,” Garza said on Monday, April 13. “How hard depends on what we do as a community. It’s easy to get frustrated and want to gather in larger groups, especially with the warmer weather. However, I can’t stress enough that we are reaching a critical time and we can’t let up.”
Garza is the incident commander for the St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force. The task force includes four major health care systems: BJC HealthCare, Mercy, SSM Health and St Luke’s Hospital.
Every day, Garza gives a briefing on the task force’s COVID-19 statistics that represent 2.8 million people for an area that encompasses surrounding counties in Missouri and Illinois in the larger St. Louis region.
When Garza first reported statistics on April 5, the task force’s systems had 468 patients who were hospitalized with COVID-19 or were suspected of having COVID-19. As of April 15, that number is 707.
“That is an increase of 50 percent in less than 10 days,” he said during his April 15 briefing. “The spread of this pandemic is quite real.”
Garza reported on April 15 that there were 175 people in the intensive care unit (ICU) and 149 were on ventilators. There were 59 people who recovered and were discharged.
Garza anticipates that the region will see its peak in COVID-19 cases at the end of April, though predicting this is similar to forecasting when a hurricane will hit, he said. At the region’s peak, anywhere from 600 to 1,500 people could be hospitalized at any one time.
Based on the task force’s projections, Garza estimates that more than 71,000 people of the region’s 2.8 million people could be infected with the virus by the end of April — though about 30 percent will be asymptomatic.
“That is down slightly from our initial estimate of more than 80,000, and it is a reflection that all of the things we have been doing — including shelter in place, social distancing and other actions — are helping,” he said. “But this is still a significant number.”
Experts hope St. Louis will have similar success as it did with the 1918 influenza pandemic, but most people don’t realize that it came in three waves after officials relaxed social distancing, Garza said.
“We can’t afford a second wave – or a third wave – in this pandemic,” he said. “We need to throw everything we can at this virus in the weeks ahead to stop the spread.”
During the April 10 briefing, Garza reflected on conversations he’d had with some of the frontline medical workers.
“What I saw and heard was truly surprising,” Garza said. “I was told that people were requesting to work on dedicated COVID units. When I asked the staff why they wanted to work on COVID units, they told me different things. Some said, ‘This is what we do, this is what I went into healthcare for, and this is where I’m needed most.’ It was an inspiring experience.”
Garza also said that the task force now has a liaison officer who is working with five Missouri emergency operations centers: St. Charles, City of St. Louis, St. Louis County, Franklin County, Jefferson county.
Also, the alternative care facility at a Quality Inn in Florissant opened on Wednesday, April 15. This is for COVID-19 patients who have mild symptoms and a means for people who are recovering, if they need someplace to quarantine, he said.
As of April 15, St. Louis County had reported 58 COVID-19 deaths and 1,896 cases, and St. Charles County had reported 17 deaths and 413 cases. As of April 14, the City of St. Louis had reported 26 deaths and 723 cases. At press time, the State of Missouri had reported 147 deaths and 4895 cases since the onset of the pandemic.
‘Practice self-compassion’
During the April 10 briefing, Garza invited a mental health expert, Dr. Timothy Bono, to give tips on mentally dealing with the pandemic. Bono is the assistant dean in the College of Arts & Sciences and lecturer in psychological and brain sciences at Washington University.
Bono gave tips on three positive “behaviors” and two mindsets.
The three behaviors were restoring a sense of autonomy, working towards goals, and finding a sense of relatedness.
“It can feel like things are spiraling out of control,” Bono said. “It becomes important to focus on things that are in our control.”
These things include getting exercise regularly, cooking favorite meals, watching favorite shows, and expressing gratitude for the things that are going well in our lives and communities, Bono said.
Second, it’s helpful to work towards goals that give people a sense of accomplishment — no matter how small. That can be eating a healthy breakfast or making the bed every day.
“Even a small goal can motivate us to accomplish larger goals later in the day,” he said.
And third, maintaining relationships is one of the most important ways to maintain mental health at any time but especially during a crisis.
The two mindsets are to give yourself permission to be human and to take one day at a time.
“Allow yourself to feel whatever you are feeling,” Bono said. “There will be days we are not able to make enough progress towards our goals. It’s important to practice self-compassion.”
